Duke University/CFO Magazine
Business Outlook Survey
December 2004
All information will be used only in aggregate form. No individual data are recorded or made public. Please respond by midnight, Sunday, December 5. If you have any questions about this survey, please
contact us
.
1. Are you more or less optimistic about the
U.S. economy
compared to last quarter?
More optimistic
Less optimistic
No change
Rate your optimism about the U.S. economy on a scale from 0-100, with 0 being the least optimistic and 100 being the most optimistic.
2. Are you more or less optimistic about the financial prospects for
your company
compared to last quarter?
More optimistic
Less optimistic
No change
Rate your optimism about the financial prospects for your own company on a scale from 0-100, with 0 being the least optimistic and 100 being the most optimistic.
3. What do you think
annualized
U.S. real GDP growth will be during the
next 12 months
? (e.g., +3%, -2%, etc.)
%
4. On November 29, 2004 the annual yield on 10-yr treasury bonds was 4.3%. Please complete the following:
a. Over the
next 10 years
, I expect the
average annual
S&P 500 return will be:
Worst Case: There is a 1-in-10
chance the actual average
return will be less than:
%
Best Guess
:
I expect the
return to be:
%
Best Case: There is a 1-in-10
chance the actual average
return will be greater than:
%
b. During the
next year
, I expect the S&P 500 return will be:
Worst Case: There is a 1-in-10
chance the actual return will
be less than:
%
Best Guess
:
I expect the
return to be:
%
Best Case: There is a 1-in-10
chance the actual return will
be greater than:
%
5. Relative to the previous 12 months, what will be your company's PERCENTAGE CHANGE during the next 12 months? (e.g., +3%, -2%, etc.) [Leave blank if not applicable]
% Prices of your products
% Productivity (output per hour worked)
% Advertising/Marketing spending
% Health care costs
% Inventory
% Number of employees
% Number of foreign/off-shore
outsourced employees
% Wages/Salaries
% Dividends
% Technology spending
% Capital spending
% Earnings
% Revenues
% R&D spending
6a. How large will bonuses be at your firm this year, as a percentage of total compensation ? (e.g., 0%, 12%, etc.)
%
6b. How much will bonuses change this year (relative to last year’s bonuses)? (e.g., -20%, +30%, etc.)
%
7. What are the top four concerns your corporation faces in 2005? (rank #1, #2, #3, #4)
U.S. budget deficit
Trade deficit
Domestic terrorism
U.S. dollar exchange rate
Low consumer savings rate
Price of fuel
Inflation
Increased interest rates
Salaries and wages
Health care costs
Competition
Other
8. Fuel costs have risen considerably in 2004. Has your company implemented strategies to reduce your level of fuel consumption? (e.g., changes to fleet vehicles, etc.)
No
Yes
If yes, what changes?
9. Here is a list of issues that President Bush faces in his second term. Please rank the top four in terms of what you think should get the most attention. (rank #1, #2, #3, #4)
U.S. dollar’s weakness
High oil prices
Job market
Trade deficit
Improving relations with allies
Reducing the rich/poor gap
Tax-code reforms
Health care
Situation in Iraq
Social Security reform
Budget deficit
Homeland security
10a. On a scale of 0 to 100, how do you rank the negative impact that the threat of terrorism is having on your business? (0 means no impact, 100 means maximum negative impact from threat of terrorism.)
0-100
10b. What is the “cut-off” negative impact that would cause the threat of terrorism to have a significant negative effect on your bottom line? (If your answer in 10a is greater than your answer to 10b, it means that the threat of terrorism is significantly affecting your bottom line.)
0-100
Please check one from each category that best describes your company:
a. Industry
Retail/Wholesale
Mining/Construction
Manufacturing
Transportation/Energy
Communications/Media
Tech [Software/Biotech]
Banking/Finance/Insurance
Service/Consulting
Healthcare/Pharmaceutical
Other
b. Sales Revenue
c. Number of Employees
Less than $25 million
$25-$99 million
$100-$499 million
$500-$999 million
$1-$4.9 billion
More than $5 billion
Fewer than 100
100-499
500-999
1,000-2,499
2,500-4,999
5,000-9,999
More than 10,000
d. Headquarters
e. Ownership
Northeast U.S.
Mountain U.S.
Midwest U.S.
South Central U.S.
South Atlantic U.S.
Pacific U.S.
Central/Latin America
Europe
Asia
Public, NYSE
Public, NASDAQ/AMEX
Private
Government
Nonprofit
f. Foreign Sales
g. Your job title (e.g., CFO, Asst. Treasurer, etc):
0%
1-24%
25-50%
More than 50%
© Duke University, 2004