Duke University/CFO Magazine
Business Outlook Survey
December 2004

All information will be used only in aggregate form. No individual data are recorded or made public. Please respond by midnight, Sunday, December 5. If you have any questions about this survey, please contact us.

 

1. Are you more or less optimistic about the U.S. economy compared to last quarter?
More optimistic
Less optimistic
No change		 Rate your optimism about the U.S. economy on a scale from 0-100, with 0 being the least optimistic and 100 being the most optimistic.

2. Are you more or less optimistic about the financial prospects for your company compared to last quarter?
More optimistic
Less optimistic
No change		 Rate your optimism about the financial prospects for your own company on a scale from 0-100, with 0 being the least optimistic and 100 being the most optimistic.

3. What do you think annualized U.S. real GDP growth will be during the next 12 months? (e.g., +3%, -2%, etc.)
%

4. On November 29, 2004 the annual yield on 10-yr treasury bonds was 4.3%. Please complete the following:

a. Over the next 10 years, I expect the average annual S&P 500 return will be:

Worst Case: There is a 1-in-10
chance the actual average
return will be less than:

             %		 Best Guess:
I expect the
return to be:

%		 Best Case: There is a 1-in-10
chance the actual average
return will be greater than:

          %

b. During the next year, I expect the S&P 500 return will be:

Worst Case: There is a 1-in-10
chance the actual return will
be less than:

             %		 Best Guess:
I expect the
return to be:

%		 Best Case: There is a 1-in-10
chance the actual return will
be greater than:

          %

5. Relative to the previous 12 months, what will be your company's PERCENTAGE CHANGE during the next 12 months? (e.g., +3%, -2%, etc.)  [Leave blank if not applicable]
%  Prices of your products
%  Productivity (output per hour worked)
%  Advertising/Marketing spending
%  Health care costs
%  Inventory
%  Number of employees
%  Number of foreign/off-shore
                       outsourced employees 		%  Wages/Salaries
%  Dividends
%  Technology spending
%  Capital spending
%  Earnings
%  Revenues
%  R&D spending

6a. How large will bonuses be at your firm this year, as a percentage of total compensation ?  (e.g., 0%, 12%, etc.)
%
6b. How much will bonuses change this year (relative to last year’s bonuses)? (e.g., -20%, +30%, etc.)
%

7. What are the top four concerns your corporation faces in 2005? (rank #1, #2, #3, #4) 
   U.S. budget deficit
   Trade deficit
   Domestic terrorism
   U.S. dollar exchange rate
   Low consumer savings rate
   Price of fuel 		  Inflation
   Increased interest rates
   Salaries and wages
   Health care costs
   Competition
   Other   

8. Fuel costs have risen considerably in 2004. Has your company implemented strategies to reduce your level of fuel consumption? (e.g., changes to fleet vehicles, etc.)
No
Yes
 If yes, what changes?

9. Here is a list of issues that President Bush faces in his second term. Please rank the top four in terms of what you think should get the most attention. (rank #1, #2, #3, #4)
   U.S. dollar’s weakness
   High oil prices
   Job market
   Trade deficit
   Improving relations with allies
   Reducing the rich/poor gap 		  Tax-code reforms
   Health care
   Situation in Iraq
   Social Security reform
   Budget deficit
   Homeland security

10a. On a scale of 0 to 100, how do you rank the negative impact that the threat of terrorism is having on your business? (0 means no impact, 100 means maximum negative impact from threat of terrorism.)
 0-100
10b. What is the “cut-off” negative impact that would cause the threat of terrorism to have a significant negative effect on your bottom line? (If your answer in 10a is greater than your answer to 10b, it means that the threat of terrorism is significantly affecting your bottom line.)
 0-100


Please check one from each category that best describes your company:

     a. Industry
       Retail/Wholesale
       Mining/Construction
       Manufacturing
       Transportation/Energy
       Communications/Media		       Tech [Software/Biotech]
      Banking/Finance/Insurance
      Service/Consulting
      Healthcare/Pharmaceutical
      Other  
  b. Sales Revenue  c. Number of Employees
       Less than $25 million
       $25-$99 million
       $100-$499 million
       $500-$999 million
       $1-$4.9 billion
       More than $5 billion		       Fewer than 100
      100-499
      500-999
      1,000-2,499
      2,500-4,999
      5,000-9,999
      More than 10,000
  d. Headquarters   e. Ownership
       Northeast U.S.
       Mountain U.S.
       Midwest U.S.
       South Central U.S.
       South Atlantic U.S.
       Pacific U.S.
       Central/Latin America
       Europe
       Asia		       Public, NYSE
      Public, NASDAQ/AMEX
      Private
      Government
      Nonprofit
  f. Foreign Sales g. Your job title (e.g., CFO, Asst. Treasurer, etc):
       0%
       1-24%
       25-50%
       More than 50%		        

© Duke University, 2004