Table of Contents

1a. Are you more or less optimistic about your country's economy compared to last quarter?	1
1b. Rate your optimism about your country's economy on a scale from 0-100, with 0 being the least optimistic and 100
being the most optimistic.	2
2a. Are you more or less optimistic about the financial prospects for your own company compared to last quarter?	3
2b. Rate your optimism about the financial prospects for your own company on a scale from 0-100, with 0 being the least
optimistic and 100 being the most optimistic.	4
3. Relative to the previous 12 months, what will be your company's PERCENTAGE CHANGE during the next 12 months?
[Unweighted - Winsorized]	5
3. Relative to the previous 12 months, what will be your company's PERCENTAGE CHANGE during the next 12 months?
(e.g., +3%, -2%, etc.) [Winsorized]	6
3. Relative to the previous 12 months, what will be your company's PERCENTAGE CHANGE during the next 12 months
for:   [Unweighted - Sorted]	7
4. Compared to a "normal" economic environment, have the following factors affected your capital spending this year or
next year?	8
4. How have the following factors affected your capital spending THIS year? (sorted)	10
4. How have the following factors affected your capital spending plans for NEXT year? (sorted)	11
5. Considering the normal aging of your assets and your rate of investment in new assets, by about how much has the age
of your fixed assets changed relative to five years ago?	12
5b. Is the aging of your fixed assets a drag on your productivity growth?	13
6. Going forward, is the nature of your business changing in a way that affects your firm's required amount of capital
investment?	14
6b. Why will you require LESS capital investment?	15
6c. Why will you require MORE capital investment?	16
7. For firms in your industry, do you believe increased payouts (dividends, repurchases) are constraining corporate
investment?	17
8. By how much do you expect the value of your currency relative to the USD to change over the next 12 months? (e.g., -
15%, +10%)	18
9a. Is your firm's rate of productivity growth changing?	19
9b. Have the following factors affected the productivity growth rate at your company?	20
Industry	22
In what country are you personally located	24
Headquarters Latin America (Other Specified)	25
Foreign Sales	27
In what region of the world are most of your foreign sales?	28
Your job title (e.g., CFO, Asst. Treasurer, etc):	29

 1 

Duke, Global Business Outlook survey - Ecuador - Fourth Quarter, 2015

1a. Are you more or less optimistic about your country's economy compared to last quarter?

	 	Number	Percent	95% CI
	1=More optimistic	4	9.5 %	± 9.3 %
	0=No change	9	21.4 %	± 13.0 %
	-1=Less optimistic	29	69.0 %	± 14.6 %
	Total	42	100.0 %

	Mean = -0.60
	SD = 0.66

	Missing Cases = 0
	Response Percent = 100.0 %

2 

Duke, Global Business Outlook survey - Ecuador - Fourth Quarter, 2015

1b. Rate your optimism about your country's economy on a scale from 0-100, with 0 being the least optimistic and 100 being the most optimistic.

	Minimum = 5

	Maximum = 80

	Mean = 47.7

	Median = 50

	Standard Deviation (Unbiased Estimate) = 20.0

	95 Percent Confidence Interval Around The Mean = 41.7 - 53.8

4 Groups

	 1 = 30
	 2 = 50
	 3 = 60

Valid Cases =42
Missing Cases =0
Response Percent = 100.0%

3 

Duke, Global Business Outlook survey - Ecuador - Fourth Quarter, 2015

2a. Are you more or less optimistic about the financial prospects for your own company compared to last quarter?

	 	Number	Percent	95% CI
	1=More optimistic	12	28.6 %	± 14.3 %
	0=No change	16	38.1 %	± 15.3 %
	-1=Less optimistic	14	33.3 %	± 14.9 %
	Total	42	100.0 %

	Mean = -0.05
	SD = 0.79

	Missing Cases = 0
	Response Percent = 100.0 %

4 

Duke, Global Business Outlook survey - Ecuador - Fourth Quarter, 2015

2b. Rate your optimism about the financial prospects for your own company on a scale from 0-100, with 0 being the least optimistic and 100 being the most optimistic.

	Minimum = 10

	Maximum = 90

	Mean = 62.1

	Median = 70

	Standard Deviation (Unbiased Estimate) = 19.8

	95 Percent Confidence Interval Around The Mean = 56.2 - 68.1

4 Groups

	 1 = 50
	 2 = 70
	 3 = 80

Valid Cases =42
Missing Cases =0
Response Percent = 100.0%

5 

Duke, Global Business Outlook survey - Ecuador - Fourth Quarter, 2015

3. Relative to the previous 12 months, what will be your company's PERCENTAGE CHANGE during the next 12 months?   [Unweighted - Winsorized] 

	Mean	SD	95% CI	Median	Minimum	Maximum	Total

Capital spending	4.07	10.43	0.76 - 7.39	0	-15	28.96	38

Wages/Salaries	0.86	3.28	-0.18 - 1.91	0	-11.10	11.96	40

Prices of your products	-0.93	7.15	-3.23 - 1.38	0	-20.20	18.93	39

Number of domestic full-time employees	-0.93	9.40	-3.88 - 2.02	0	-36.20	36.89	37

Revenue	-2.91	18.96	-8.86 - 3.04	0	-44.50	38.26	39

Earnings	-5.91	19.79	-12.04 - 0.23	0	-50.10	30	38

6 

Duke, Global Business Outlook survey - Ecuador - Fourth Quarter, 2015

3. Relative to the previous 12 months, what will be your company's PERCENTAGE CHANGE during the next 12 months? (e.g., +3%, -2%, etc.) [Winsorized]

	Mean	SD	95% CI	Median	Minimum	Maximum	Total

Capital spending	4.07	10.43	0.76 - 7.39	0	-15	28.96	38

Wages/Salaries	0.86	3.28	-0.18 - 1.91	0	-11.10	11.96	40

Prices of your products	-0.93	7.15	-3.23 - 1.38	0	-20.20	18.93	39

Number of domestic full-time employees	-0.93	9.40	-3.88 - 2.02	0	-36.20	36.89	37

Revenue	-2.91	18.96	-8.86 - 3.04	0	-44.50	38.26	39

Earnings	-5.91	19.79	-12.04 - 0.23	0	-50.10	30	38

7 

Duke, Global Business Outlook survey - Ecuador - Fourth Quarter, 2015

3. Relative to the previous 12 months, what will be your company's PERCENTAGE CHANGE during the next 12 months for:   [Unweighted - Sorted]

(N=42)

	Mean & SD	Positive	Zero	Negative
	  	1	0	-1	
	0.21	10	26	2
Capital spending	0.53	26.3%	68.4%	5.3%

	0.21	9	28	1
Wages/Salaries	0.47	23.7%	73.7%	2.6%

	0.05	7	25	5
Prices of your products	0.57	18.9%	67.6%	13.5%

	0.00	14	11	14
Revenue	0.86	35.9%	28.2%	35.9%

	-0.15	3	27	9
Number of domestic full-time employees	0.54	7.7%	69.2%	23.1%

	-0.17	9	15	16
Earnings	0.78	22.5%	37.5%	40.0%

8 

Duke, Global Business Outlook survey - Ecuador - Fourth Quarter, 2015

4. Compared to a "normal" economic environment, have the following factors affected your capital spending this year or next year?

(N=42)

	Mean & SD	Up	No Effect	Down
	  	+1	0	-1	
	-0.33	1	2	3
Currency valuation (2015 actual)	0.82	16.7%	33.3%	50.0%

	-0.29	1	3	3
Currency valuation (2016 planned)	0.76	14.3%	42.9%	42.9%

 	 	 	 	 

	0.67	6	3	0
Interest rates (2015 actual)	0.50	66.7%	33.3%	0.0%

	0.67	6	3	0
Interest rates (2016 planned)	0.50	66.7%	33.3%	0.0%

 	 	 	 	 

	0.25	2	6	0
Slowdown in China (2015 actual)	0.46	25.0%	75.0%	0.0%

	0.43	3	4	0
Slowdown in China (2016 planned)	0.53	42.9%	57.1%	0.0%

 	 	 	 	 

Economic/political changes in Latin	0.33	5	2	2
America (2015 actual)	0.87	55.6%	22.2%	22.2%

Economic/political changes in Latin	0.50	5	2	1
America (2016 planned)	0.76	62.5%	25.0%	12.5%

 	 	 	 	 

New or anticipated regulatory	0.50	6	0	2
requirements (2015 actual)	0.93	75.0%	0.0%	25.0%

New or anticipated regulatory	0.43	5	0	2
requirements (2016 planned)	0.98	71.4%	0.0%	28.6%

 	 	 	 	 

	0.75	6	2	0
Price of fuel (2015 actual)	0.46	75.0%	25.0%	0.0%

	0.57	5	1	1
Price of fuel (2016 planned)	0.79	71.4%	14.3%	14.3%

9 

Duke, Global Business Outlook survey - Ecuador - Fourth Quarter, 2015

4. Compared to a "normal" economic environment, have the following factors affected your capital spending this year or next year?

	Mean & SD	Up	No Effect	Down
	  	+1	0	-1	

	0.43	3	4	0
Dividends/share repurchases (2015 actual)	0.53	42.9%	57.1%	0.0%

Dividends/share repurchases (2016	0.00	2	3	2
planned)	0.82	28.6%	42.9%	28.6%

 	 	 	 	 

	-1.00	0	0	1
Other: (2015 actual)	0.00	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%

	-1.00	0	0	1
Other: (2016 planned)	0.00	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%

10 

Duke, Global Business Outlook survey - Ecuador - Fourth Quarter, 2015

4. How have the following factors affected your capital spending THIS year? (sorted)

(N=42)

	Mean & SD	Up	No Effect	Down
	  	+1	0	-1	
	0.75	6	2	0
Price of fuel	0.46	75.0%	25.0%	0.0%

	0.67	6	3	0
Interest rates	0.50	66.7%	33.3%	0.0%

New or anticipated regulatory	0.50	6	0	2
requirements	0.93	75.0%	0.0%	25.0%

	0.43	3	4	0
Dividends/share repurchases	0.53	42.9%	57.1%	0.0%

Economic/political changes in Latin	0.33	5	2	2
America	0.87	55.6%	22.2%	22.2%

	0.25	2	6	0
Slowdown in China	0.46	25.0%	75.0%	0.0%

	-0.33	1	2	3
Currency valuation	0.82	16.7%	33.3%	50.0%

	-1.00	0	0	1
Other:	0.00	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%

11 

Duke, Global Business Outlook survey - Ecuador - Fourth Quarter, 2015

4. How have the following factors affected your capital spending plans for NEXT year? (sorted)

(N=42)

	Mean & SD	Up	No Effect	Down
	  	+1	0	-1	
	0.67	6	3	0
Interest rates	0.50	66.7%	33.3%	0.0%

	0.57	5	1	1
Price of fuel	0.79	71.4%	14.3%	14.3%

Economic/political changes in Latin	0.50	5	2	1
America	0.76	62.5%	25.0%	12.5%

New or anticipated regulatory	0.43	5	0	2
requirements	0.98	71.4%	0.0%	28.6%

	0.43	3	4	0
Slowdown in China	0.53	42.9%	57.1%	0.0%

	0.00	2	3	2
Dividends/share repurchases	0.82	28.6%	42.9%	28.6%

	-0.29	1	3	3
Currency valuation	0.76	14.3%	42.9%	42.9%

	-1.00	0	0	1
Other:	0.00	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%

12 

Duke, Global Business Outlook survey - Ecuador - Fourth Quarter, 2015

5. Considering the normal aging of your assets and your rate of investment in new assets, by about how much has the age of your fixed assets changed relative to five years ago?

	 	Number	Percent	95% CI
	+2=Large increase in age	0	0.0 %	± 0.0 %
	+1=Moderate increase in age	3	30.0 %	± 9.1 %
	0=No change	2	20.0 %	± 7.5 %
	-1=Moderate decrease in age	4	40.0 %	± 10.4 %
	-2=Large decrease in age	1	10.0 %	± 5.4 %
	Total	10	100.0 %

	Mean = -0.30
	SD = 1.06

	Missing Cases = 32
	Response Percent = 23.8 %

13 

Duke, Global Business Outlook survey - Ecuador - Fourth Quarter, 2015

5b. Is the aging of your fixed assets a drag on your productivity growth?

	 	Number	Percent	95% CI
	No	3	100.0 %	± 0.2 %
	Yes	0	0.0 %	± 0.2 %
	Total	3	100.0 %

	Missing Cases = 0
	Response Percent = 100.0 %

14 

Duke, Global Business Outlook survey - Ecuador - Fourth Quarter, 2015

6. Going forward, is the nature of your business changing in a way that affects your firm's required amount of capital investment?

	 	Number	Percent	95% CI
	-2=Much less capital investment will be required	0	0.0 %	± 0.0 %
	-1=Moderately less	1	11.1 %	± 5.5 %
	0=No change	5	55.6 %	± 11.7 %
	+1=Moderately more	2	22.2 %	± 7.7 %
	+2=Much more capital investment will be required	1	11.1 %	± 5.5 %
	Total	9	100.0 %

	Mean = 0.33
	SD = 0.87

	Missing Cases = 33
	Response Percent = 21.4 %

15 

Duke, Global Business Outlook survey - Ecuador - Fourth Quarter, 2015

6b. Why will you require LESS capital investment?

Agr, Forestry, Fishing	Inversiones de capital fuertes ya estan hechas.	

16 

Duke, Global Business Outlook survey - Ecuador - Fourth Quarter, 2015

6c. Why will you require MORE capital investment?

Agr, Forestry, Fishing	Cambio de variedades en plantacion de palma	
Bank/Fin/Insur/Real Est	Menores utilidades, mayores inversiones requeridas, mÃ¡s requerimientos	
	normativos. Menor apetito internacional por invertir en Ecuador.	
Manufacturing	Moderinización de maquinarias que maximicen los beneficios futuros y bajen los	
	costos de producción	

17 

Duke, Global Business Outlook survey - Ecuador - Fourth Quarter, 2015

7. For firms in your industry, do you believe increased payouts (dividends, repurchases) are constraining corporate investment?

	 	Number	Percent	95% CI
	2=Yes, a lot	1	12.5 %	± 5.6 %
	1=Yes, a little	2	25.0 %	± 7.9 %
	0=No	5	62.5 %	± 12.0 %
	Total	8	100.0 %

	Mean = 0.50
	SD = 0.76

	Missing Cases = 34
	Response Percent = 19.0 %

18 

Duke, Global Business Outlook survey - Ecuador - Fourth Quarter, 2015

8. By how much do you expect the value of your currency relative to the USD to change over the next 12 months? (e.g., -15%, +10%)

	Minimum = 0

	Maximum = 5

	Mean = 1.17

	Median = 0

	Standard Deviation (Unbiased Estimate) = 2.04

	95 Percent Confidence Interval Around The Mean = -0.47 - 2.80

	99 Percent Confidence Interval Around The Mean = -0.98 - 3.31

Quartiles

	 1 = 0
	 2 = 0
	 3 = 2

Valid Cases =2
Missing Cases =36
Response Percent = 5.3%

19 

Duke, Global Business Outlook survey - Ecuador - Fourth Quarter, 2015

9a. Is your firm's rate of productivity growth changing?

	 	Number	Percent	95% CI
	-2=Slowing a lot	0	0.0 %	± 0.0 %
	-1=Slowing moderately	2	20.0 %	± 7.5 %
	0=No change	1	10.0 %	± 5.4 %
	+1=Accelerating moderately	7	70.0 %	± 13.2 %
	+2=Accelerating a lot	0	0.0 %	± 0.0 %
	Total	10	100.0 %

	Mean = 0.50
	SD = 0.85

	Missing Cases = 32
	Response Percent = 23.8 %

20 

Duke, Global Business Outlook survey - Ecuador - Fourth Quarter, 2015

9b. Have the following factors affected the productivity growth rate at your company?

(N=9)

		Very				Very
	Mean & SD	positive	Positive	No impact	Negative	negative
	  	1	2	3	4	5	
	1.38	5	3	0	0	0
Automation and technology use	0.52	62.5%	37.5%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

	1.63	3	5	0	0	0
Process change	0.52	37.5%	62.5%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

	2.25	0	6	2	0	0
New business model	0.46	0.0%	75.0%	25.0%	0.0%	0.0%

	3.13	0	1	5	2	0
Currency valuation	0.64	0.0%	12.5%	62.5%	25.0%	0.0%

	3.25	0	2	2	4	0
Unit labor costs	0.89	0.0%	25.0%	25.0%	50.0%	0.0%

	3.50	0	2	0	6	0
Regulation	0.93	0.0%	25.0%	0.0%	75.0%	0.0%

Business disruption from external events
(e.g., bad weather, political turmoil,	4.00	0	0	2	3	2
supply chain interruptions)	0.82	0.0%	0.0%	28.6%	42.9%	28.6%

	4.11	0	0	0	8	1
Economic conditions	0.33	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	88.9%	11.1%

	0.00	0	0	0	0	0
Other:	0.00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

21 

Duke, Global Business Outlook survey - Ecuador - Fourth Quarter, 2015

9b. Have the following factors affected the productivity growth rate at your company? - Other specified

--- No Response ---

22 

Duke, Global Business Outlook survey - Ecuador - Fourth Quarter, 2015

Industry

	 	Number	Percent	95% CI
	Healthcare/Pharmaceutical	12	28.6 %	± 14.3 %
	Agriculture, Forestry, & Fishing	9	21.4 %	± 13.0 %
	Banking/Finance/Insurance/Real Estate	4	9.5 %	± 9.3 %
	Mining/Construction	4	9.5 %	± 9.3 %
	Manufacturing	1	2.4 %	± 4.8 %
	Transportation & Public Utilities	0	0.0 %	± 0.0 %
	Retail/Wholesale	0	0.0 %	± 0.0 %
	Public Administration	0	0.0 %	± 0.0 %
	Communication/Media	0	0.0 %	± 0.0 %
	Technology [Software/Hardware/Biotech]	0	0.0 %	± 0.0 %
	Energy	0	0.0 %	± 0.0 %
	Services, Consulting	0	0.0 %	± 0.0 %
	Other Industry	12	28.6 %	± 14.3 %
	Total	42	100.0 %

	Missing Cases = 0
	Response Percent = 100.0 %

23 

Duke, Global Business Outlook survey - Ecuador - Fourth Quarter, 2015

Industry (Other specified)

--- No Response ---

24 

Duke, Global Business Outlook survey - Ecuador - Fourth Quarter, 2015

In what country are you personally located

	 	Number	Percent	95% CI
	Ecuador	42	100.0 %	± 0.0 %
	Total	42	100.0 %

	Missing Cases = 0
	Response Percent = 100.0 %

25 

Duke, Global Business Outlook survey - Ecuador - Fourth Quarter, 2015

Headquarters Latin America (Other Specified)

Guayaquil	

26 

Duke, Global Business Outlook survey - Ecuador - Fourth Quarter, 2015

If your company headquarters is another country, please indicate which country.

--- No Response ---

27 

Duke, Global Business Outlook survey - Ecuador - Fourth Quarter, 2015

Foreign Sales

	 	Number	Percent	95% CI
	0%	6	14.3 %	± 11.1 %
	1-24%	7	16.7 %	± 11.8 %
	25-50%	1	2.4 %	± 4.8 %
	More than 50%	28	66.7 %	± 14.9 %
	Total	42	100.0 %

	Missing Cases = 0
	Response Percent = 100.0 %

28 

Duke, Global Business Outlook survey - Ecuador - Fourth Quarter, 2015

In what region of the world are most of your foreign sales?

	 	Number	Percent	95% CI
	US/Canada	3	50.0 %	± 12.0 %
	Latin America	3	50.0 %	± 12.0 %
	Africa	0	0.0 %	± 0.0 %
	Asia/Pacific Basin	0	0.0 %	± 0.0 %
	Europe	0	0.0 %	± 0.0 %
	Total	6	100.0 %

	Missing Cases = 30
	Response Percent = 16.7 %

29 

Duke, Global Business Outlook survey - Ecuador - Fourth Quarter, 2015

Your job title (e.g., CFO, Asst. Treasurer, etc):

	 	Number	Percent
	DUEÃ‘O	5	15.2 %
	CONTADORA	3	9.1 %
	ADMINISTRADOR	3	9.1 %
	GERENTE GENERAL	2	6.1 %
	GERENTE	2	6.1 %
	Director Financiero	2	6.1 %
	Gerente Financiero	2	6.1 %
	DIRECCIÃ“N ADMINISTRATIVA	1	3.0 %
	JEFE ADMINISTRATIVA	1	3.0 %
	Subgerente Tesoreria	1	3.0 %
	CEO	1	3.0 %
	Asistente Financiero	1	3.0 %
	Gerente de Tesorería	1	3.0 %
	CONTADORA GENERAL	1	3.0 %
	ADMINISTRADORA	1	3.0 %
	GERENCIA	1	3.0 %
	SOCIO	1	3.0 %
	JEFE	1	3.0 %
	CONTADOR	1	3.0 %
	GERENTE ADMINISTRATIVO	1	3.0 %
	Vicepresidente de Finanzas	1	3.0 %
	Total	33	100.0 %

	Missing Cases = 9
	Response Percent = 78.6 %